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Research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, published on Tuesday, indicates that professional economic forecasters tend to overestimate their accuracy in long-term predictions while underestimating their short-term precision. The study, which analyzed data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters from 1982 to 2022, revealed that for forecasts two to four quarters ahead, actual errors were two to four times greater than the forecasters' estimated uncertainty ranges for both GDP growth and inflation. In contrast, for predictions less than three months out, forecasters typically overestimated potential errors. The study's author, Marco Del Negro, highlighted significant differences in uncertainty estimates among individual forecasters, suggesting that these findings challenge the rational expectations theory. Del Negro proposed that these discrepancies might stem from an over-reliance on varying models or priors in making longer-term forecasts.

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Europe's food and farming lobbies have recognized the need to eat less meat after hammering out a shared vision for the future of agriculture with green groups and other stakeholders. From a report: The wide-ranging report calls for "urgent, ambitious and feasible" change in farm and food systems and acknowledges that Europeans eat more animal protein than scientists recommend. It says support is needed to rebalance diets toward plant-based proteins such as better education, stricter marketing and voluntary buyouts of farms in regions that intensively rear livestock. The stakeholders also agreed on the need for a major rethink of subsidies, calling for a "just transition fund" to help farmers adopt sustainable practices, and targeted financial support to those who need it most. The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, who commissioned the report to quell furious farmer protests at the start of the year, said the results would feed into a planned vision for agriculture that she will present in the first 100 days of her new mandate. "We share the same goal," said Von der Leyen. "Only if farmers can live off their land will they invest in more sustainable practices. And only if we achieve our climate and environmental goals together will farmers be able to continue making a living." Animal agriculture is one of the biggest drivers of climate breakdown and the destruction of natural habitats, but European leaders have made little effort to steer diets heavy in meat and milk to whole grains and plant-based sources of protein. The report did not set targets for meat production, such as culling herds, but called for support to help shift dietary habits, such as free school meals, more detailed labels, and tax reductions on healthy and sustainable food products.

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The Biden-Harris administration's big bet on Intel to lead a US chipmaking renaissance is in grave trouble as a result of the company's mounting financial struggles, creating a potentially damaging setback for the country's most ambitious industrial policy in decades. From a report: Five months after the president traveled to Arizona to unveil a potential $20 billion package of incentives alongside Chief Executive Officer Pat Gelsinger, there are growing questions around when -- or if -- Intel will get its hands on that money. Intel's woes also may jeopardize the government's ability to reach its policy goals, which include establishing a secure supply of cutting-edge chips for the Pentagon and making a fifth of the world's advanced processors by 2030. Intel is mired in a sales slump worse than anticipated and hemorrhaging cash, forcing its board to consider increasingly drastic actions -- including possibly splitting off its manufacturing division or paring back global factory plans, Bloomberg reported last week. That threatens to further complicate its quest for government funding, at a time when Intel desperately needs the help. The Silicon Valley company is supposed to receive $8.5 billion in grants and $11 billion in loans from the 2022 Chips and Science Act, but only if the chipmaker meets key milestones -- and after significant due diligence. That process, which applies to all Chips Act winners, has been clear from the outset, and aims to ensure that companies only get taxpayer dollars once they've actually delivered on their promises. Intel, like other potential recipients, hasn't received any money yet.

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An anonymous reader quotes a report from Axios: The German company says it may close plants in its home country amid what CEO Oliver Blume reportedly called "a very demanding and serious situation" for the European automotive industry. That would mark the first-ever German plant closures in the company's nearly nine-decade history. VW is facing a pair of competition-related challenges -- one outside its control, and the other of its own making. Chinese automakers are wresting market share away from VW in China, where it once held the highest share of any automaker. The company's China sales have fallen from 4 million in 2017 to an estimated 2.5 million in 2024, according to Dunne Insights analyst Michael Dunne. And its Chinese competitors are bringing cheap electric vehicles to VW's other critical market: Europe. Another part of the problem is that VW is a bloated company compared with its competitors, meaning it has less margin for error. The company had some 684,000 employees in 2023. That's about 309,000 more than the ever-efficient Toyota, which sold about 2 million more vehicles than VW worldwide last year. The VW brand's profit margin fell from 3.8% in 2023 to 2.3% in the first half of 2024, moving in the wrong direction from the company's long-term target of 6.5%, according to Evercore ISI analyst Chris McNally. Hence the "drastic attempt to cut costs" as the company's bottom line suffers, McNally writes. But VW isn't just facing operational issues and increased competition in key markets -- it's also falling behind on technology. The company recently agreed to invest in Rivian to get help from the American startup on EV development despite having 40 times more employees than its new partner. And VW's long-awaited ID. Buzz -- its EV revival of its famed microbus -- recently disappointed enthusiasts with underwhelming battery range of 234 miles and a starting price of about $60,000.

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Security issues were discovered in Chromium which could result in the execution of arbitrary code, denial of service, or information disclosure.

https://security-tracker.debian.org/tracker/DSA-5766-1

During a 2023 deployment, senior enlisted leaders aboard the Navy ship USS Manchester secretly installed a Starlink Wi-Fi network, allowing them exclusive internet access in violation of Navy regulations. "Unauthorized Wi-Fi systems like the one [then-Command Senior Chief Grisel Marrero] set up are a massive no-no for a deployed Navy ship, and Marrero's crime occurred as the ship was deploying to the West Pacific, where such security concerns become even more paramount among heightened tensions with the Chinese," reports Navy Times. From the report: As the ship prepared for a West Pacific deployment in April 2023, the enlisted leader onboard conspired with the ship's chiefs to install the secret, unauthorized network aboard the ship, for use exclusively by them. So while rank-and-file sailors lived without the level of internet connectivity they enjoyed ashore, the chiefs installed a Starlink satellite internet dish on the top of the ship and used a Wi-Fi network they dubbed "STINKY" to check sports scores, text home and stream movies. The enjoyment of those wireless creature comforts by enlisted leaders aboard the ship carried serious repercussions for the security of the ship and its crew. "The danger such systems pose to the crew, the ship and the Navy cannot be understated," the investigation notes. Led by the senior enlisted leader of the ship's gold crew, then-Command Senior Chief Grisel Marrero, the effort roped in the entire chiefs mess by the time it was uncovered a few months later. Marrero was relieved in late 2023 after repeatedly misleading and lying to her ship's command about the Wi-Fi network, and she was convicted at court-martial this spring in connection to the scheme. She was sentenced to a reduction in rank to E-7 after the trial and did not respond to requests for comment for this report. The Navy has yet to release the entirety of the Manchester investigation file to Navy Times, including supplemental enclosures. Such records generally include statements or interview transcripts with the accused. But records released so far show the probe, which wrapped in November, found that the entire chiefs mess knew about the secret system, and those who didn't buy into it were nonetheless culpable for not reporting the misconduct. Those chiefs and senior chiefs who used, paid for, helped hide or knew about the system were given administrative nonjudicial punishment at commodore's mast, according to the investigation. All told, more than 15 Manchester chiefs were in cahoots with Marrero to purchase, install and use the Starlink system aboard the ship. "This agreement was a criminal conspiracy, supported by the overt act of bringing the purchased Starlink onboard USS MANCHESTER," the investigation said. "Any new member of the CPO Mess which then paid into the services joined that conspiracy following the system's operational status." Records obtained by Navy Times via a Freedom of Information Act request reveal a months-long effort by Marrero to obtain, install and then conceal the chiefs Wi-Fi network from superiors, including the covert installation of a Starlink satellite dish on the outside of the Manchester. When superiors became suspicious about the existence of the network and confronted her about it, Marrero failed to come clean on multiple occasions and provided falsified documents to further mislead Manchester's commanding officer, the investigation states. "The installation and usage of Starlink, without the approval of higher headquarters, poses a serious risk to mission, operational security, and information security," the investigation states.

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Firefox 130 introduces several enhancements, including improved local translation handling, better Android page load performance, and the WebCodecs API for low-level audio/video processing on desktop platforms. Notably, it also supports third-party AI chatbots like ChatGPT and Google Gemini via the new Firefox Labs feature. Phoronix reports: The WebCodecs API is particularly useful for web-based apps like video/audio editors and video conferencing that may want control over individual frames of a video stream or audio chunks. For any web software interested in that low-level audio/video encode/decode handling there is now WebCodecs API working on the Firefox desktop builds. As for the third-party AI chatbots, here's what Mozilla's Ian Carmichael said back in June: "If you want to use AI, we think you should have the freedom to use (or not use) the tools that best suit your needs. Instead of juggling between tabs or apps for assistance, those who opt-in will have the option to access their preferred AI service from the Firefox sidebar to summarize information, simplify language, or test their knowledge, all without leaving their current web page." You can learn more about Firefox 130 via developer.mozilla.org. Binaries for Linux can be found at Mozilla.org.

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Sweden's Enerpoly has opened the world's first zinc-ion battery megafactory near Stockholm, aiming for a 100 MWh annual capacity by 2026. "According to Enerpoly, this megafactory will serve Europe's needs for safe energy storage, and also utilize an all-European supply chain to boot," reports New Atlas. From the report: If you're wondering why Enerpoly is bothering with zinc-ion and not lithium-ion batteries, it's because the former is a better choice for storage in several ways: - They use a water-based electrolyte, which makes them non-flammable, and reduces the risk of fires and explosions. - They're less expensive, because zinc is far more abundant than lithium (which is difficult and expensive to extract), and easier to handle. They can also operate across a wider temperature range and require less maintenance, making them cheaper than lithium-ion options. - They're more eco-friendly for the same reason. In contrast, extracting lithium currently requires extensive mining as well as the use of massive evaporation ponds before processing even begins. - They're said to last a whole lot longer. According to the International Zinc Association, a nonprofit trade association which counts Enerpoly as a member, zinc-based batteries can last up to 20 years, while lithium batteries manage about 12 years. The downside? They have a lower energy density than something like a Tesla 4680 battery, making them ideal for applications like load shifting and grid resilience.

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Sweden's Enerpoly has opened the world's first zinc-ion battery megafactory near Stockholm, aiming for a 100 MWh annual capacity by 2026. "According to Enerpoly, this megafactory will serve Europe's needs for safe energy storage, and also utilize an all-European supply chain to boot," reports New Atlas. From the report: If you're wondering why Enerpoly is bothering with zinc-ion and not lithium-ion batteries, it's because the former is a better choice for storage in several ways: - They use a water-based electrolyte, which makes them non-flammable, and reduces the risk of fires and explosions. - They're less expensive, because zinc is far more abundant than lithium (which is difficult and expensive to extract), and easier to handle. They can also operate across a wider temperature range and require less maintenance, making them cheaper than lithium-ion options. - They're more eco-friendly for the same reason. In contrast, extracting lithium currently requires extensive mining as well as the use of massive evaporation ponds before processing even begins. - They're said to last a whole lot longer. According to the International Zinc Association, a nonprofit trade association which counts Enerpoly as a member, zinc-based batteries can last up to 20 years, while lithium batteries manage about 12 years. The downside? They have a lower energy density than something like a Tesla 4680 battery, making them ideal for applications like load shifting and grid resilience.

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An anonymous reader quotes a Bloomberg article, written by Jason Leopold: The aurora borealis, or northern lights, is a colorful display in the night sky that comes from geomagnetic storms in space. When charged particles from the sun smash into the Earth's upper atmosphere, they create bright, kaleidoscopic ribbons of light, typically in polar regions. Really big solar action can interfere with GPS systems and power grids. That's exactly what happened on May 10, when there were three "coronal mass ejections" (my future metal band name) that produced one of the most powerful solar storms in 500 years, hence the dazzling, polychromatic sky visible even from South America. Turns out, the extreme space weather also disrupted life on Earth. Six days after the northern lights, I filed a Freedom of Information Act request with NOAA. I was curious how the agency reacted to the atmospheric event and whether the public deserved to be concerned. I asked NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and National Weather Service for a wide range of records, including emails, photographs, satellite images and threat assessments. A couple of weeks ago, NOAA turned over some interesting documents. The short version is, while we marveled at the light show, scientists were concerned. According to one internal memo, the geomagnetic storm was an "extreme," rare event and if NOAA scientists hadn't been on their game it could have been catastrophic. A May 14, three-page after action memo disseminated by Clinton Wallace, the director of the Space Weather Prediction Center, described the storm's impact and explained the celestial phenomenon. He said "Solar Cycle 25," a phase of solar sunspot activity that began in December 2019 and continues through 2030, "has been more active than anticipated, with an intense surge in solar activity marking the beginning of May." "A large group of unstable sunspots on the Sun's surface unleashed several powerful solar flares, immediately affecting the Earth's outer atmosphere and causing disruptions in high-frequency (HF) radio communications," he wrote. "This had significant implications for trans-oceanic aviation, which relies heavily on HF radio for communication over long distances." On May 9, a day before the northern lights extravaganza, staff at the Space Weather Prediction Center "activated" the North American Electric Reliability Corp. hotline to make sure the regulator was prepared. Wallace's memo said NERC gave about 3,000 electric utility companies a six-hour head start to get ready. The space weather officials also advised the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency on preparedness. Wallace wrote in his memo that the storm caused "significant disruptions across multiple sectors, including navigation, power grids, aviation, and satellite operations." He also noted that the severity of the geomagnetic storm "underscored the interconnectedness and vulnerability of modern infrastructure to space weather." Although Wallace said the space weather scientists took steps to mitigate any potential disaster, their work "highlighted areas for improvement in preparedness and response." He didn't elaborate.

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The Verge's Jess Weatherbed reports: The organization behind National Novel Writing Month (NaNoWriMo) is being slammed online after it claimed that opposing the use of AI writing tools is "classist and ableist." On Saturday, NaNoWriMo published its stance on the technology, announcing that it doesn't explicitly support or condemn any approach to writing. "We believe that to categorically condemn AI would be to ignore classist and ableist issues surrounding the use of the technology, and that questions around the use of AI tie to questions around privilege," NaNoWriMo said, arguing that "not all brains" have the "same abilities" and that AI tools can reduce the financial burden of hiring human writing assistants. NaNoWriMo's annual creative writing event is the organization's flagship program that challenges participants to create a 50,000-word manuscript every November. Last year, the organization said that it accepts novels written with the help of AI apps like ChatGPT but noted that doing so for the entire submission "would defeat the purpose of the challenge." This year's post goes further. "We recognize that some members of our community stand staunchly against AI for themselves, and that's perfectly fine," said NaNoWriMo in its latest post advocating for AI tools. "As individuals, we have the freedom to make our own decisions." The post has since been lambasted by writers across platforms like X and Reddit, who, like many creatives, believe that generative AI tools are exploitive and devalue human art. Many disabled writers also criticized the statement for inferring that they need generative AI tools to write effectively. Meanwhile, Daniel Jose Older, a lead story architect for Star Wars: The High Republic, announced that he was resigning from the NaNoWriMo Writers Board due to the statement. "Generative AI empowers not the artist, not the writer, but the tech industry," Star Wars: Aftermath author Chuck Wendig said in response to NaNoWriMo's stance. "It steals content to remake content, graverobbing existing material to staple together its Frankensteinian idea of art and story."

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Intel's slumping share price could cost it a spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Reuters reports: Analysts and investors said Intel was likely to be removed from the Dow, pointing to a near 60% decline in the company's shares this year that has made it the worst performer on the index and left it with the lowest stock price on the price-weighted Dow. The chipmaker's shares slid about 7% on Tuesday amid a broader market selloff, with the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index (.SOX) down nearly 6%, following reports of lower chip sales globally in July. A removal from the index will hurt Intel's already bruised reputation. The company has missed out on the artificial intelligence boom after passing on an OpenAI investment and losses are mounting at the contract manufacturing unit that the chipmaker has been building out in hopes of challenging TSMC. To fund a turnaround, Intel suspended dividend and announced layoffs affecting 15% of its workforce during its earnings report last month. But some analysts and a former board member believe the moves might be too little, too late for the chipmaker.

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In the days following Brazil's shutdown of X, the decentralized social networking startup Bluesky added over 2 million new users, up from just half a million as of Friday. "This rapid growth led some users to encounter the occasional error that would state there were 'Not Enough Resources' to handle requests, as Bluesky engineers scrambled to keep the servers stable under the influx of new sign-ups," reports TechCrunch's Sarah Perez. From the report: As new users downloaded the app, Bluesky jumped to becoming the app to No. 1 in Brazil over the weekend, ahead of Meta's X competitor, Instagram Threads. According to app intelligence firm Appfigures, Bluesky's total downloads soared by 10,584% this weekend compared to last, and its downloads in Brazil were up by a whopping 1,018,952%. The growth seems to be having a halo effect, as downloads outside Brazil also rose by 584%, the firm noted. In part, this is due to Bluesky receiving downloads in 22 countries where it had barely seen any traction before. In terms of absolute downloads, countries that saw the most installs outside Brazil included the U.S., Portugal, the U.K., Canada and Spain. Those with the most download growth, however, were Portugal, Chile, Argentina, Colombia and Romania. Most of the latter group jumped from single-digit growth to growth in the thousands. Bluesky's newcomers have actively engaged on the platform, too, driving up other key metrics. As one Bluesky engineer remarked, the number of likes on the social network grew to 104.6 million over the past four-day period, up from just 13 million when compared with a similar period just a week ago. Follows also grew from 1.4 million to 100.8 million while reposts grew from 1.3 million to 11 million. As of Monday, Bluesky said it had added 2.11 million users during the past four days, up from 26,000 users it had added in the week-ago period. In addition, the company noted it had seen "significantly more than a 100% [daily active users] increase." On Tuesday, Bluesky told TechCrunch the number is now 2.4 million and continues to grow "by the minute."

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An anonymous reader quotes a report from Ars Technica: On Thursday, ABC announced an upcoming TV special titled, "AI and the Future of Us: An Oprah Winfrey Special." The one-hour show, set to air on September 12, aims to explore AI's impact on daily life and will feature interviews with figures in the tech industry, like OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Bill Gates. Soon after the announcement, some AI critics began questioning the guest list and the framing of the show in general. [...] Critics of generative AI ... question the utility of the technology, its perceived environmental impact, and what they see as blatant copyright infringement. "Sure is nice of Oprah to host this extended sales pitch for the generative AI industry at a moment when its fortunes are flagging and the AI bubble is threatening to burst," tweeted author Brian Merchant, who frequently criticizes generative AI technology in op-eds, social media, and through his "Blood in the Machine" AI newsletter. "The way the experts who are not experts are presented as such what a train wreck," replied artist Karla Ortiz, who is a plaintiff in a lawsuit against several AI companies. "There's still PLENTY of time to get actual experts and have a better discussion on this because yikes." On Friday, Ortiz created a lengthy viral thread on X that detailed her potential issues with the program, writing, "This event will be the first time many people will get info on Generative AI. However it is shaping up to be a misinformed marketing event starring vested interests (some who are under a litany of lawsuits) who ignore the harms GenAi inflicts on communities NOW." The AI TV special will feature "some of the most important and powerful people in AI," said ABC. They include Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, YouTube creator Marques Brownlee, Tristan Harris and Aza Raskin from the Center for Humane Technology, FBI Director Christopher Wray, and author Marilynne Robinson. The show will air on September 12 on ABC (and a day later on Hulu) in the U.S.

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According to Mark Gurman, Apple's upcoming M4 Mac mini will undergo a major redesign, dropping USB-A ports entirely in favor of five USB-C ports. The new design will also feature front ports for the first time, an internal power supply, and retain Ethernet, HDMI, and the headphone jack. "As I've been reporting for several months now, the Mac is in for a big transition to M4 chips -- starting around the end of this year and extending into the first half or so of 2025," writes Gurman in a newsletter for Bloomberg. "Apple plans to kick things off soon with a new Mac mini, iMac and MacBook Pro. Of those models, the Mac mini will get the most dramatic new design, its first major overhaul since 2010. Just to put that in perspective: The last time there was a Mac mini redesign, preorders of the iPhone 4 had just began."

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According to Bloomberg (paywalled), Nvidia has received a subpoena from the U.S. Department of Justice as the regulator seeks evidence that the AI computing company violated antitrust laws. "The antitrust watchdog had previously delivered questionnaires to companies, and is now sending legally binding requests," notes Reuters. "Officials are concerned that the chipmaker is making it harder to switch to other suppliers and penalizes buyers that do not exclusively use its artificial intelligence chips." The development follows a push by progressive groups last month, who criticized Nvidia's bundling of software and hardware, claiming it stifles innovation and locks in customers. In July, French antitrust regulators announced plans to charge the company for alleged anti-competitive practices. Developing...

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An anonymous reader quotes a report from the Associated Press: The Dutch data protection watchdog on Tuesday issued facial recognition startup Clearview AI with a fine of $33.7 million over its creation of what the agency called an "illegal database" of billion of photos of faces. The Netherlands' Data Protection Agency, or DPA, also warned Dutch companies that using Clearview's services is also banned. The data agency said that New York-based Clearview "has not objected to this decision and is therefore unable to appeal against the fine." But in a statement emailed to The Associated Press, Clearview's chief legal officer, Jack Mulcaire, said that the decision is "unlawful, devoid of due process and is unenforceable." The Dutch agency said that building the database and insufficiently informing people whose images appear in the database amounted to serious breaches of the European Union's General Data Protection Regulation, or GDPR. "Facial recognition is a highly intrusive technology, that you cannot simply unleash on anyone in the world," DPA chairman Aleid Wolfsen said in a statement. "If there is a photo of you on the Internet -- and doesn't that apply to all of us? -- then you can end up in the database of Clearview and be tracked. This is not a doom scenario from a scary film. Nor is it something that could only be done in China," he said. DPA said that if Clearview doesn't halt the breaches of the regulation, it faces noncompliance penalties of up to $5.6 million on top of the fine. Mulcaire said Clearview doesn't fall under EU data protection regulations. "Clearview AI does not have a place of business in the Netherlands or the EU, it does not have any customers in the Netherlands or the EU, and does not undertake any activities that would otherwise mean it is subject to the GDPR," he said.

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PlayStation hero shooter Concord will be taken offline on September 6, 2024 and all players will receive a full refund, Sony announced Tuesday. From a report: Announced on the PlayStation Blog, director Ryan Ellis said "while many qualities of the experience resonated with players, we also recognize that other aspects of the game and our initial launch didn't land the way we'd intended." Concord will therefore be taken offline so Sony and developer Firewalk Studios can "explore options, including those that will better reach our players." The game will be removed from sale immediately and anyone who purchased on the PlayStation Store or PlayStation Direct will be refunded to their original payment methods. Those who purchased on Steam and the Epic Games Store will be refunded in the coming days. Firewalk Studios' AA shooter was released less than two weeks ago on August 23.

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Google has released Android 15 for developers, with support for Pixel phones expected in the coming weeks. The update will roll out to compatible devices from Samsung, Motorola, OnePlus, and other manufacturers in the following months. Key features of Android 15 include single-tap passkeys, theft detection, improved multitasking for large-screen devices, and app access limitations. The update also enhances TalkBack, Android's screen reader, with Gemini AI integration for audio descriptions of images. Google is expanding its Circle to Search feature with song identification capabilities and extending earthquake alerts to all U.S. states and six territories. The alerts use data from Android devices' accelerometers to detect potential seismic activity, complementing traditional seismometer readings in states with access to the USGS ShakeAlert system.

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The YubiKey 5, the most widely used hardware token for two-factor authentication based on the FIDO standard, contains a cryptographic flaw that makes the finger-size device vulnerable to cloning when an attacker gains brief physical access to it, researchers said Tuesday. ArsTechnica: The cryptographic flaw, known as a side channel, resides in a small microcontroller that's used in a vast number of other authentication devices, including smartcards used in banking, electronic passports, and the accessing of secure areas. While the researchers have confirmed all YubiKey 5 series models can be cloned, they haven't tested other devices using the microcontroller, which is SLE78 made by Infineon and successor microcontrollers known as the Infineon Optiga Trust M and the Infineon Optiga TPM. The researchers suspect that any device using any of these three microcontrollers and the Infineon cryptographic library contain the same vulnerability. YubiKey-maker Yubico issued an advisory in coordination with a detailed disclosure report from NinjaLab, the security firm that reverse-engineered the YubiKey 5 series and devised the cloning attack. All YubiKeys running firmware prior to version 5.7 -- which was released in May and replaces the Infineon cryptolibrary with a custom one -- are vulnerable. Updating key firmware on the YubiKey isn't possible. That leaves all affected YubiKeys permanently vulnerable.

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